July 6, 2005
Okay the nerds are tracking this thing to go just above Jamaica. It's CAN'T go above Jamaica and it can't make a perfect direct hit on Jamaica, nor Hispaniola. It will go below Jamaica (south), just like Ivan. Now Jamaica will get the strongest winds, but the eye will not cross Jamaica.
It will then nick the west tip of Cuba, just like Ivan. Then the 72 hour steering winds charts hold it on a course just like Ivan.
Experts are saying it could stay straight online for Texas, or strong high pressure troughs will pull it more toward the west Fla. coast. Now that's pretty damn brave of them. They only left out Mexico and the east coast of Fla to have a shot at being able to nail it down.
I say it will head right toward us (D.I.)after nicking Cuba. There could be a slight turn to the east as it nears land, taking it over Gulf Shores/Orange beach, just like Ivan. I think a cat-3 will be it's ranking as it makes landfall,but I see it being a cat-4 at Cuba. And I don't mind being wrong and watching it hit Mexico or east Fla. as a depression either. But presently, the steering currents predicted don't indicate that.
July 7, 2005
Seems I have missed in the first stages of my prediction, and hopefully all stages of it. Dennis is going north of Jamaica rather than south of it. This could cause Dennis to cross Cuba from end to end and should knock down the near Cat-3 winds the storm has currently. I'm hoping to totally miss on my prediction. We on Dauphin Island are getting a little tired of these storms. And sadly, I know Florida is too.
July 9, 2005 @3 p.m
Well it's wobbled around my predicted route, but looks like it may hit my predicted target. It was a major Cat-4 when it hit Cuba, but instead of a "nick", it ran nearly the whole length of the island. This killed it's wind down to 100mph as it entered the Gulf again on it march toward us. Seems like we have been watching this thing for a month. It is scheduled to hit land tomorrow evening sometimes. Hurricane computer models have it hitting in the Pensacola area, but I'm thinking it may be a teeny bit west of Pensacola and a teeny bit east of Dauphin Island. I'm riding out Dennis on Dauphin Island, so with Bruces help with his camera, we will try to provide some stunning pictures when we can move about. Here are a few shots of today at around 3 pm.
July 10, 2005 @7 a.m.
At 11 a.m.
Winds have picked up around fringes
Winds are much higher but flooding is not.
This will wind up the storm as it is happening. Everything is winding down. Gulf is calming, tides are going down, and winds are subsiding. As conditions permit, I will go into the west end area, but I don't expect to see a lot of damage.
5 p.m. went to west end. It took 2 hours
July 12, 2005
Beach reshaped in the Strand Ct. area
Looks like beaches rebuilt from Ivan got put back up on shore
Over the months since Ivan, the house below had water under all but the last row of pilings to the right.