Decided to start this page just in case
Posted by Winkey [user-33qt1f7.dialup.mindspring.com at 22.214.171.124] on September 06, 2004 at 15:18:46:
On Frances,, I expected landfall higher up on the Fla coast near or at the Ga. line. This one had me doubting myself, but remembering back with the weather-nerds little yellow funnel, I think I had them beat most of the time. Now with Ivan, the remains of Frances could inject some more dry air or pull the high conveyor currents north causing Ivan to move east of us or even east of Fla. I hope so, but Fla has had enough for one year. I think it will be watched by more people down south than Fox News.
Posted by Winkey [user-33qt1f7.dialup.mindspring.com at 126.96.36.199] on September 06, 2004 at 14:01:33:
I figure by wednesday-week, it should be near our latitude if it maintains near it's current speed. It will cross Cuba and we should have an idea on who gets it then.
Posted by Winkey [user-2injrpk.dialup.mindspring.com at 188.8.131.52] on September 07, 2004 at 09:03:04:
I think it will run a more westerly direction than the little window above shows. It will make a less gradual curve toward the north about thursday which will bring it across the western tip of Cuba. I look for landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola. The reason I say this is that the watervapor images are showing a drift toward the south from the outflow of Ivan which indicates there is a push to keep it from turning north. So D.I. beach owners should be making notes of things they need to do. I still figure it will be a week from this wednesday before it gets real close. Hopefully I am wrong. It has weakened a little but will build again possibly to a cat-5.
Posted by Winkey [user-2injrqk.dialup.mindspring.com at 184.108.40.206] on September 08, 2004 at 17:52:50:
I think there will be no good news on this one. Bruce's aunt and some cousins live in Panama City Fl. He knows a hit East of D.I. is the very best chance. Anything from D.I. West to N.O. would wreck this place. So I just hope he is right about Mexico though I don't believe it will maintain that course. We don't know anyone living there and it may slow down the wetbacks a little. But I do hope it keeps moving very fast. Those slow one really get on your nerves. This will be a very long 7 or 8 days.
Posted by Winkey [user-33qt5rl.dialup.mindspring.com at 220.127.116.11] on September 09, 2004 at 14:26:15:
I think it will go just south of Jamica and then take a more southerly bow
for a day or so. Then it will start it's bow to the north and begin it's
movement toward us. After several days, we should know whether it targets Fla or
us(Gulf Shores to N.O). But on a good note, it can't maintain its current power
and orginazation for long. Once they get this strong, they tend to tear
themselves up somewhat.
Posted by Winkey [user-33qt4rl.dialup.mindspring.com at 18.104.22.168] on September 10, 2004 at 07:50:02:
In Reply to: Winkey is out with a hot little sand crab,, and the models,, posted by Bruce on September 09, 2004 at 21:33:46:
The models are assuming the high pressure conveyor will be smaller than
normal and pull the cain toward fla. But I still am not so sure. My most trusted
model still shows it heading to the pensacola/destin area, which is still only a
guess based on what it "thinks" the high pressure currents will be doing at that
time. It is very unlikely that this high pressure will just shrink down and
cause this. I don't blame them for warning florida, but I would have never
pulled the tract funnel away from the N.O./Miss area. Time will tell, but don't
get caught not watching if it drifts our way. Even thought I don't want to see
the poor voting-challenged people of florida to get another one, I like the
models choice as far as D.I. is concerned. Most models show Ivan crossing
directly over Jamica. I think it will pass just to the south of Jamica putting
the worst winds on top of them. Hopefully Ivan will be a weaker storm by the
time it reaches the U.S.
Posted by Winkey [user-2injq9k.dialup.mindspring.com at 22.214.171.124] on September 11, 2004 at 21:28:57:
I predict it will start to turn more toward the norts after it passes the caymens. I figure it will miss the caymens to their south and start a slow turn to the north being pulled by a wind current running from south of the Yuccatan to mid atlantic ocean. I think it will pass between the Yuccatan and Cuba and stay over warm waters. We also have a stationary front just offshore of D.I. that will pull it along once it gets there. I think it has a great chance of making landfall between N.O. and Panama City. But the front offshore is a good insurance policy for us in that it contains dry air, which will try to kill the storm, plus it will drag it more to the east, which is good news for us, but not Florida panhandle towns like Pensacola and Panama City.
Posted by Winkey [user-2injrl5.dialup.mindspring.com at 126.96.36.199] on September 13, 2004 at 09:01:38:
Not trying to take anyone off their guard, but once it gets into the Gulf, we should see a slow drift to the east. Actually the tip of the Yuccatan is due south of Pensacola/Ft. Walton. To hit mobile, it would have to move north and west, and inland and off coast air currents will not allow a westward drift once it is close to land. But I would keep watching just for the fun of it. It has not started it's turn yet, but I look for it today.
Raw photos, September 16, 2004
September 30, 2004
My count of 44 missing houses is pretty low. There are many "second, and third from the gulf" houses gone too.
Sept. 30, 2004 Scenes from down by Fort Gains
Dredging sand from the channel and putting it back near the fort and C.G. areas↓
Old shipwreck uncovered by Ivan. It quickly vanished and I figured it was reburied. Photos by Buddy Brueck